Icalo Bagoleka bamambala…
By the Independent Political Correspondent
Wednesday, 22nd July, 2026
At the Kansanshi copper mine in the North-Western Province, the future of the global green energy transition is stacked in heavy, gleaming rows. Laborers in dust-streaked overalls inspect bundles of newly produced copper sheets, meticulously labeling the wealth that fuels the world’s electric vehicles and wind turbines. But for the men on the ground, the “paradox of plenty” is a lived reality. Zambia provides 74% of its own export earnings through this single mineral, yet over 60% of its population remains trapped in poverty.
As the nation approaches the critical elections of August 2026, a disturbing picture of “State Capture” has emerged. A deep-dive investigation by Global Witness reveals that this disparity is no accident of geography or economics. Instead, it is the result of a decades-long covert influence campaign orchestrated by First Quantum Minerals (FQM), a Canadian giant that controls over half of Zambia’s copper production.
The Price of a Presidency
In the high-stakes theater of Zambian politics, President Hakainde Hichilema has branded himself the “Chief Marketing Officer,” a businessman-turned-leader promising mining-friendly reforms. But the financial engine behind his United Party for National Development (UPND) appears to be fueled by the very industry he regulates.
Despite public claims that the party accepts no foreign funding, internal sources and former employees reveal that FQM has become the UPND’s most significant benefactor, allegedly pledging up to $50 million to secure Hichilema’s 2026 re-election. In a country where the average citizen survives on a few dollars a day, such a sum is gargantuan—yet for a multi-billion dollar corporation, it is a mere rounding error.
“To you and me, $50 million sounds a lot of money… So what is $50 million? It can easily be absorbed on the expenditure side and just be delivered as cash without affecting their reporting standards.”
This isn’t FQM’s first foray into the shadow world of political bankrolling. Historical files suggest a long-standing pattern; in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo, the company allegedly agreed to pay £1.2 million to the CT Group to help swing an election during a mining dispute. By “absorbing” these costs into operational budgets, the company effectively bypasses transparency, undermining the democratic ideal of a level playing field.
The Safari Lodge Summit
The most brazen display of this corporate-political fusion occurred in December 2025 at the Royal Zambezi Lodge. The setting was the epitome of “colonial-league” luxury: a five-star safari camp owned by the Pascall family, the dynasty behind FQM. Here, amidst candlelit dinners on white linen and the shimmer of infinity pools, the fate of the Zambian Constitution was decided.
Opposition and independent MPs were allegedly flown to this private enclave to secure their votes for “Bill No. 7.” This controversial amendment sought to redraw electoral boundaries and nearly double the number of MPs, including those directly nominated by the President—a move critics called a blatant attempt to engineer a permanent ruling party majority.
The stakes were higher than mere policy. The Constitutional Court had already declared Bill No. 7 unconstitutional and void before the vote. To bypass this judicial firewall, sources allege that lawmakers were offered up to $150,000 in cash within the secluded confines of the lodge. While the Pascall family denies knowledge of these payoffs, the result was a victory for the administration following the rather shadowy outing at this exclusive lodge.
The “Brexit” Playbook in Lusaka
The machinery of this capture is not merely local; it is a sophisticated export of Western political engineering. Key to Hichilema’s rise is the SABI Strategy Group and its founder, Henry Sands. A former British Army officer with deep ties to the UK’s Conservative Party establishment, Sands brought the “Vote Leave” playbook to Lusaka.
The tactics are a masterclass in modern manipulation. SABI orchestrated an image makeover for Hichilema, swapping his formal ties and dense economic jargon for relaxed attire and catchy populist slogans. Behind the scenes, the campaign utilized “microtargeting” and “third-party persuasion techniques”—the same data-driven dark arts championed by Cambridge Analytica’s Alexander Nix, who in a leaked letter described Sands as a “mutual friend” while offering his services to the President.
This importation of high-end disinformation and lobbying creates a manufactured political reality, where the interests of Canadian miners are indistinguishable from the national interest.
The $771 Million Return on Investment
For First Quantum Minerals, the investment in political influence has yielded a staggering return. Since Hichilema took office in 2021, the government has overhauled the tax regime in ways that uniquely benefit the mining giant. Independent analysis shows these changes saved FQM an estimated $771 million between 2022 and 2025.
The alliance was codified in the “Zambezi Minute,” an agreement signed during a private forum at the Royal Zambezi Lodge. The document acts as a corporate firewall, guarding against “resource nationalism”—the democratic impulse of a people to reclaim their own mineral wealth. When photos of the meeting leaked, the public reaction was one of profound betrayal. One social media commentator spoke for many:
“Are we safe with our mineral resources? Looks like State Capture on the horizon.”
To protect these gains, the company has shown a sharp, litigious edge. When the Southern Africa Resource Watch (SARW) exposed environmental harms and toxic water pollution near FQM’s mines, the company responded with a “SLAPP” suit (Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation), seeking millions in damages to silence the civil society group.
The Billionaire “Influence Project”
Beyond FQM, a wider network of billionaire interests ensures the state remains “safe for investment.” The Brenthurst Foundation, established by the Oppenheimer family—the dynasty behind Anglo-American—has moved from the role of advisor to that of architect.
Former employees describe Brenthurst not as a think tank, but as an “influence project” designed to keep commercial interests happy. The foundation didn’t just suggest policies; sources indicate they wrote the very economic blueprints Hichilema implemented upon taking office. Completing this “Billionaire Project” is the Tony Blair Institute (TBI). Backed by tech mogul Larry Ellison, the TBI embedded itself in the “Presidential Delivery Unit” (PDU), which insiders say is now doubling as a campaign hub for the 2026 election.
A Warning for the Green Transition
The “Copper Capture” of Zambia is a cautionary tale for the 21st century. As the world pivots toward a green economy, the demand for minerals like copper will reach a fever pitch. But if the “just energy transition” is built on a foundation of extractivism—where corporate giants dismantle democratic safeguards to secure raw materials—it will be neither just nor sustainable.
Zambia’s experience raises a haunting question for the global community: Can we truly claim to be saving the planet if the cost is the mortgage of a nation’s democracy? If the transition to clean energy is fueled by the erosion of democratic integrity, we are simply trading one form of exploitation for another, under a more palatable name.
As the country is poised to have a change in leadership this August, the biggest question is, will the incoming President ignore these fraudulent activities or they will get to work and reverse this brazen plunder of national wealth?
